IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION IN KADUNA STATE

ABSTRACT

The study examine the the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeriawithin the period of 1990 to 2022. Relevant conceptual, theoretical and empirical literature was reviewed.This study employed the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Model. NARDL is appropriateness because the unit root test results revealed a mixed order of I(0) and I(1) and Wald test which established the existence of non-linearity. Findings revealed that climate change has a significant impact on construction project delivery in  Kaduna State, Nigeria. Findings of the study also reveals that climate change affects different agricultural outputs in Nigeria in the short- and long-run in kaduna State. Findings of the study also reveals that different agricultural outputs in Nigeria respond differently to abrupt climate change in the long-run in Kaduna State. Finally, findings of the study further reveals that there is a significant relationship between climate change and agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria. It was therefore concluded that climate change significantly impacted on the agricultural production in Nigeria. It was suggested provision of irrigation facilities such as dam, pumping machines, hose, wells and boreholes to farmers as this will help ameliorate shortages of water caused by climate change.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Backgroound of the Study

          One of the significant problems facing our world in the twenty-first century is climate change (Keshav & Niraj, 2013). Climate change is the alteration in the composition and functioning of the climate system that is caused by human activity and natural climatic variability, whether directly or indirectly (UN, 2012). This trend has been attributed to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, bush burning, deforestation, and urbanisation that cause the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the climate system (Tol, 2013). A higher concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere will prevent light from escaping the earth's surface from passing through, trapping heat, and cause global warming (Cumhur & Malcolm, 2008).

          The variability and change of the Nigerian climate have manifested significant temporal and regional alterations. Drought, flood, heat waves, ocean surges, and other extreme climatic and weather phenomena have grown increasingly frequent. Extreme weather and climate have a detrimental effect on the economy as well as lives and property, even if their effects may be gradual.Every year, floods get worse, becoming a recurring problem that causes enormous damage and pain. Due to ocean surges and powerful tidal waves, the nation's low-lying shoreline is perpetually inundated (NIMET, 2012). Over 250,000 Nigerians were believed to have been displaced by flood disasters that decimated numerous villages throughout the country in 2010, according to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) (NEMA, 2010). The beginning of the rainy (wet) season between 1941 and 1970 was largely from early to normal, with the exception of isolated regions near Sokoto and Maiduguri that experienced late advent of the rainy season, according to Nigeria Climate Review (2012) released by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET). Later years, however, were marked by the rainy season starting later and later, to the point that, between 1971 and 2000, most of the nation saw late rains, with just a small band in the centre of the country experiencing typical circumstances. Rainfall and average temperature are two examples of how climate change affects climatic outcomes.

Since agricultural production is carried out through the selection of crops suitable for a particular region's climate and the application of proper farming techniques, this made agriculture a climate-dependent sector of the economy. Changes in climatic outcomes have a direct impact on economic activities such as agricultural output. Agricultural climatic factors including temperature, precipitation, and sunshine alter as a result of climate change's distortion of the agricultural environment.Rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns are two effects of climate change that have an impact on agricultural productivity for both crops that are rain-fed and those that are irrigated. Additionally, crops have serious setbacks as a result of unpredictable rainfall and variations in the length of time that plants are exposed to the sun, such as early cessation or too early onset. These cause the abortion of flowers and fruits. Additionally, a decrease in agricultural production is brought on by insect and disease occurrences that become variable and unpredictable during harsh weather conditions (Nzeadibe, Egbule, Chukwuone & Agu, 2011).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) defines climate change as a statistically significant alteration over a long time (decades or more) in either the mean state of the climate or in the variability of the mean state of the climate. Contrarily, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992) defined climate change as a change in climate that is brought about either directly or indirectly by human activities that alter the composition of the atmosphere in combination with natural climate variability that is observed over a longer period of time.

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) including carbon monoxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are to blame for climate change. These gases permit solar energy from the sun to reach the earth's atmosphere, but they prevent the reflected heat from returning to space, which raises the temperature of the planet (UNFCCC, 2012). According to current trends, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2030, the world will require 53% more basic energy, with 70% of that energy coming from emerging nations.However, as developing nations like China and India develop, their share of the world's energy needs will increase. The majority of this growth will undoubtedly come from fossil fuels, and the emitted GHGs as a result will lead to a rise in temperatures. But since 1900, the temperature of the earth has increased by 0.7°C, and it is expected to continue to do so at a pace of 0.2°C every ten years. But if it is not controlled, it causes a global warming of at least 1.4°C (Nkemdirim 2003).

The last decade of the 20th century and the start of the 21st have been the warmest periods in the history of temperature records, which began in the middle of the 19th century. This is according to a 2007 assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperature and precipitation variations brought on by global warming are already evident in many places of the world, including Nigeria (Odjugo, 2010).

Climate change is primarily characterised by an increase in the average global temperature, changes in cloud cover and rainfall on land, melting of ice caps and glaciers, a decrease in snow cover, and an increase in ocean temperatures and acidity as a result of seawater absorbing heat and CO2 from the atmosphere (UNFCCC, 2007). Similar to this, since 1750, human activity has significantly increased global emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O, surpassing pre-industrial amounts determined from ice cores dating back several hundreds of thousands of years (IPCC, 2007b). According to Ngaira (2003), human activities are currently recognised as the primary causes of climate change, notably in Africa. Deforestation, overgrazing, and vegetation burning are examples of land use changes that increase carbon emissions, alter energy and moisture fluxes, and have a severe impact on regional and global weather and climate patterns.

Similar to this, it is predicted that in the upcoming decades, billions of people—especially those in developing nations—would experience food and water shortages, which will have a significant impact on their health and quality of life. Therefore, comprehensive global action is needed to prepare poor nations for the repercussions of climate change that are already happening and will continue in the future. Heat waves are anticipated to increase even with a little increase in temperature due to global warming because of the kind, pace, and severity of severe events including tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), floods, droughts, and strong rainfall events (Meehl et al, 2007).

Many climate change-related uncertainties were emphasised by IPCC (2007a). According to the research, the warming of the climate system is now undeniable, and it is clear that human-caused GHG emissions, particularly CO2, are a major driver of global warming. Additionally, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has grown over the past century from 278 mg/l before the Industrial Revolution to 379 mg/l in 2005, and the average world temperature has increased by 0.74°C (IPCC, 2007b). This is the largest and fastest warming trend that researchers have ever been able to detect on Earth.

It is based on this background that the present study seeeks to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria over the period of 1990 to 20222.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

          The effects of human activity on the atmosphere have already changed factors including temperature, precipitation, CO2 levels, and ground-level ozone. However, the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use have continued to release higher concentrations of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and this has led to an increase in the amount of heat from the sun retained in the Earth's atmosphere rather than being radiated back into space as it should be. The greenhouse effect has been triggered by this rise in temperature, and this has resulted in climate change. Due to the existing population pressure and poverty, people have been engaging in activities like bush burning and deforestation that raise atmospheric CO2 levels and contribute to global warming.

The impact of climate change and unpredictability has already hindered development efforts and made Nigeria's pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) considerably more difficult. Because rain-fed agriculture depends either directly or indirectly on climate change and variability, Kaduna State and Nigeria as a whole are sensitive to it. Additionally, all aspects of agriculture, from planting to harvesting, are directly or indirectly impacted by climatic fluctuation and change.On the other hand, UNDP (2008) estimated that by 2080, 600 million people might experience food shortages and 1.8 billion people will experience water scarcity as a result of climate change effects such sea level rise, droughts, heat waves, floods, and changes in precipitation. This study therefore seeks to ascertain the the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria over the period of 1990 to 2022.

1.3 Research Questions

          The following questions guided this study;

1. What is the impact on the of climate change on agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria?

2. How does climate change affect different agricultural outputs in Nigeria in the short and long-run?

3. How do different agricultural outputs in Nigeria respond to abrupt climate change in the long-run?

4. What is  relationship between  climate change imapct and agricultural production in Kaduna State,  Nigeria?

1.4 Objectives of the Study

The goal of the study is to determine the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria. Other specific objectives of the study were;

1. To determine the impact on the of climate change on agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria.

2. To determine whether climate change affects different agricultural outputs in Nigeria in the short- and long-run

3. To ascertain  how different agricultural outputs in Nigeria respond to abrupt climate change in the long-run

4. To determine the relationship between  climate change imapct and agricultural production in Kaduna State,  Nigeria

1.5 Research Hypotheses

          The following were hypothesized;

Hypothesis One

H0: There is no significant impact of climate change on agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria

H1: There is a significant impact of climate change on agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria

Hypothesis Two

H0: Climate changes does not affect different agricultural outputs in Nigeria in the short and long-run

H1: Climate changes does affect different agricultural outputs in Nigeria in the short and long-run

Hypothesis Three

H0: Climate changes does not affect different agricultural outputs in Nigeria in the short and long-run

H1: Climate changes does affect different agricultural outputs in Nigeria in the short and long-run

Hypothesis Four

H0: There is no significant relationship between climate change and agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria

H1: There is a significant relationship between climate change and agricultural production in Kaduna State, Nigeria

1.6 Significance of the Study

          Understanding the main elements impacting productivity as well as the scope of their impact is crucial for developing and carrying out any dependable national or regional policy aimed at enhancing agricultural output.

This research will present up-to-date empirical data that will extend agricultural policymakers' comprehension of the issue in order to develop successful policies, particularly in light of the Federal Government's recent establishment of a full-fledged climate change department under the Ministry of the Environment.

Additionally, it will add to the body of literature on the issue, igniting interest in additional research in the field. This work will be highly helpful to economics students, researchers, and members of the general public who want to learn more about the subject.

Instead of the customary studies on aggregate agricultural output in climate change estimates, the findings of this study will inform policy makers as to whether or not there is an even effect of climate change on the component of agricultural output, assisting them in developing appropriate and specific policies for each component of agricultural output.

Farmers and other agricultural stakeholders will equally profit from the research's results and suggestions because they will get an understanding of preventative steps that may be taken to lessen the impact of climate change.

1.7 Justification of the Study

The study of climate variability and change is essential because of the wide range of affects it has on things like water availability, quality, and quantity, food security, agriculture, health, and air quality as well as species migration and sea level rise.These provide significant environmental difficulties as well as financial losses for the region, the nation, and the entire planet. People will become more aware of the presence of climatic variability, its effects on agriculture, the mitigating actions that need to be done, as well as the alternatives for adapting to the consequences of climate change on agricultural, as a result of the study. Prior to recently, most people took climate change for granted and gave it little consideration as a potential issue with negative effects.

1.8 Scope and Limitation of the Study   

          In order to determine climatic variability in Kaduna State's Zaria Local Government Area and to investigate the effects of climate change and variability on agriculture, the study entailed the examination of rainfall and temperature data spanning four decades (1990–2022). The studies did, however, take into account the necessary adaption strategies and mitigation measures for the effects of climate change on agriculture.The measurement of atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and the use of climate models to forecast future climatic conditions are among the topics not covered by the work.