THE IMPACT OF DECLINING GLOBAL OIL PRICE ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     INTRODUCTION        

1.1     BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY 

1.2     STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

1.3     OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY     

1.4     RESEARCH QUESTIONS

1.5     SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY 

1.6     SCOPE OF THE STUDY

1.7     LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

1.8     DEFINITION OF TERMS     

CHAPTER TWO

2.0     LITERATURE REVIEW

CHAPTER THREE

3.0     RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0     DATA ANALYSIS

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0     SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

REFRENCE

APPENDIX

CHAPTER ONE

1.0            INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND STUDY

Crude oil as an energy source since its discovery in the 1800‟s has been vitally important to the world economy. According to Hathaway (2009), the importance of oil has risen to the extent that in a world suddenly without oil, all the major distribution systems that allow economic transactions on a more than local basis would fail and the world economy would collapse.

Crude oil is a major source of foreign exchange earnings and the dominant source of revenue for the Nigerian government. According to Yuan , Liu and Huang ( 2014 ), oil price shocks have had an attendant multiplier effect on crude oil and economic activity. The Nigerian economy has been completely reliant on oil and the basis upon which government budgeting, revenue distribution and capital allocations are determined.

Volatility is an upward and downward movement of oil prices globally. This assertion thus translates that these oil prices are exogenous because it’s determined by external influences that somewhat stagnate the Naira and Nigeria cannot moderate the causes of these oil price slides. Nigeria's exports of oil at a time of peak prices –have enabled the country to post merchandise trade and current account surpluses in recent years. Reportedly, 80% of Nigeria's energy revenues flow to the government; 16% cover operational costs, and the remaining 4% go to investors (Atukeren 2003). However, the World Bank has estimated that as a result of corruption 80% of energy revenues benefit only 1% of the population

In the world over, the sustainability of any economic growth is to a large extent depends on the diversification of such economy. In the developed society fallen oil prices is not a threat as several measures are in place to upturn such occurrences. Ayoola (2013) argues that Nigeria as a mono-product economy, remains susceptible to the movements in international crude oil prices. Yusuf (2015) also contends that oil plays a critical role in Nigeria in the conduct of fiscal and monetary policies because it accounts for average of 80% of government revenue, 90-95% of the foreign exchange earnings and 12% of the real gross domestic product. Despite such windfall, Nigeria has an increasing proportion of impoverished population and

experienced continued stagnation of the economy (Okonjo-Iweala and Osafo-Kwaako, 2007).

In 2008-2009, the last global economic crisis occurred which also led to the crash of oil price of commodities. Oil prices crashed from over 140 dollars per barrel to a low of 40 dollars per barrel in a matter of days. Luckily Olusegun Obasanjo, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Chukwuma Soludo had accumulated foreign reserves in excess of 53 billion dollars and had plenty of money in excess crude account despite the resistance by the state Governors.

Thus while revenue dropped significantly, Nigeria was able to go through the period without the economy going into spin. All kinds of measures were suggested and some were adopted to help Nigeria reduce this regular boom and burst cycle. When prices rebounded, the country again relaxed and went back to business as usual. Within the last three years upstream oil companies have faced over 70 percent dip in their revenues as barrel prices dipped from $100 to below $30 per barrel. And for the commodity producers that depend on import of raw materials seem to struggle with the exchange rate dilemma orchestrated by falling oil prices. For a country like Nigeria that depend heavily on crude oil, the negative impact of recent oil prices cannot be overemphasized in views of sustainable economic development and survival of domestic industries. The country has seen crude oil prices increase from $113 to $147 per barrel and then retreat to current levels under $70 per barrel.

Government established the Petroleum Support Fund (PSF) to reduce the shock from the oil price decline in 2006. The main objective is to stabilize the domestic effect of movement of crude oil prices in international crude and products markets. But how well the PSF has performed this objective remains to be seen.

1.2     STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The impact of declining global oil price has been so high on the frowth of Nigeria’s economy because Nigeria as a mono-product economy only depends majorly on crude oil is a source of revenue. The recent shock in crude oil prices which started in July 2014 has adversely affected Nigeria, especially in the areas of foreign reserves, currencies crisis, declining government revenue, and ultimately, threat in terms of ability to meet financial obligations as at when due.

It is an acceptable fact that decline in oil price in the international market affects different countries differently depending on whether the country in question is an exporter of crude oil or an importer. In the developed society, oil price deep has little or no significant impact on the diversified economy as adequate measures are already in place to cushion its effect on fiscal and monetary policies. Today, Nigeria has substantially lost income from oil and has to fund the 2016 budget mainly from borrowed funds and perhaps from recovered loot. It is also argued that Nigeria is faced with consistent devalued standards of living. The current living standard in Nigeria showed that about 60% of her citizen live below one dollar per day

 In all these obvious problems, it is however imperative to investigate the impact of declining global oil price on the economic growth of Nigeria.

1.3     OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY     

The general objective of this study is to examine the impact of declining global oil price on the economic growth of Nigeria. The specific objectives are:

1.     To ascertain the influence declining oil price on the devaluation of Nigerian currency.

2.     To find out the relationship between fallen oil price and debt servicing.

3.     To examine the impact of fallen oil price on private and public sectors employment rate.

4.     To know if Capital expenditure performance is threatened by lower oil prices.

1.4     RESEARCH QUESTIONS

The relevant research questions related to this study are:

1.      What is the influence declining oil price on the devaluation of Nigerian currency?

2.     What is the relationship between fallen oil price and debt servicing?

3.     What is the impact of fallen oil price on private and public sectors employment rate?

4.     Is capital expenditure performance threatened by lower oil prices?

1.5     SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY 

The findings from this study will be useful to employers of labour, policy makers and the Nigerian populace. For instance, policy makers would find this research work very relevant by having a clear understanding of implications of fallen oil prices. It shall also provide them with a framework within which they can initiate policies to stimulate the economy in the face of oil price boom and burst cycle.

The findings in this study would also assist employers of labour to foresee the likelihood of employees requesting for pay raise as a result of hardship that might be orchestrated as a result of decline in fiscal and monetary policy implementation. In addition, captains of industry especially manufacturing industry will also benefit from this study by developing appropriate tactics to cope with the devaluation of Nigerian currency.

The finding from this research can also be used as a reference material for other researchers who will likely carry out a study on a related topic

1.6     SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of this study is restricted to the study of the impact of declining global oil price on the growth of the econ

1.7     LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

Some of the major constraints the researchers encountered in putting up this research include lack of time, lack of willingness to give information by respondent and also limited resources

1.8     DEFINITION OF TERMS     

The oil price:  refers to the spot price of a barrel of benchmark crude oil.

Economic growth: is an increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, compared from one period of time to another.

Devaluation is a deliberate downward adjustment to the value of a country's currency relative to another currency, group of currencies or standard.

Foreign exchange is the exchange